Here is my Election night map:
I’m from Indiana, I’ve seen the ground game and turnout here first hand. I fully expect the state to go blue, but by a very narrow margin; 2% or so. I would not be surprised if Indiana becomes the poster child for Republican “voter fraud” after they lose this election.
I made this map nearly 2 weeks ago, so I’m standing by my guns from then, before new polling data that suggests that Georgia could be an upset, and before there was a chance that Florida would backslide. I have basically given Obama all the bellweather states and all the long standing battlegrounds and a few new ones.
Maine is split for me because Maine is nearly always split, but I expect Nebraska to stay solid red.
Anyway, that’s my basic rundown and I’m happy to discuss it further with people in the comments.
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
The recent polling for Indiana has been unfavorable (+5 for McCain) while the recent polling has been oddly strong for Obama in Ohio and Florida, compacted with him pulling ahead in Montana and almost tying in Georgia.
We shall see. Indiana has had over 500,000 people vote early, twice the numbers from 2004, and Monroe county will go Obama 70-30 giving a large population center that has nearly 3 times as many registered voters as 2004 going to Obama. Nearly the entire student population has voted.
It’s enough to give Obama a 2% win in the state, however you’re right, the polling data hasn’t been strong. However, I don’t know what else to call the voter numbers around here right now other than an upset in the making.