Here is my Election night map:
I’m from Indiana, I’ve seen the ground game and turnout here first hand. I fully expect the state to go blue, but by a very narrow margin; 2% or so. I would not be surprised if Indiana becomes the poster child for Republican “voter fraud” after they lose this election.
I made this map nearly 2 weeks ago, so I’m standing by my guns from then, before new polling data that suggests that Georgia could be an upset, and before there was a chance that Florida would backslide. I have basically given Obama all the bellweather states and all the long standing battlegrounds and a few new ones.
Maine is split for me because Maine is nearly always split, but I expect Nebraska to stay solid red.
Anyway, that’s my basic rundown and I’m happy to discuss it further with people in the comments.
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