My Election Night Electoral Map Prediction

by AlvinBlah on November 3, 2008 |   Trackback URI   |     Email This Post Email This Post   |   43 Views  

Here is my Election night map:

alvinblahs election night prediction My Election Night Electoral Map Prediction

I’m from Indiana, I’ve seen the ground game and turnout here first hand. I fully expect the state to go blue, but by a very narrow margin; 2% or so. I would not be surprised if Indiana becomes the poster child for Republican “voter fraud” after they lose this election.

I made this map nearly 2 weeks ago, so I’m standing by my guns from then, before new polling data that suggests that Georgia could be an upset, and before there was a chance that Florida would backslide. I have basically given Obama all the bellweather states and all the long standing battlegrounds and a few new ones.

Maine is split for me because Maine is nearly always split, but I expect Nebraska to stay solid red.

Anyway, that’s my basic rundown and I’m happy to discuss it further with people in the comments.


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My Election Predictions
  • http://prosebeforehos.com alec

    The recent polling for Indiana has been unfavorable (+5 for McCain) while the recent polling has been oddly strong for Obama in Ohio and Florida, compacted with him pulling ahead in Montana and almost tying in Georgia.

  • http://prosebeforehos.com AlvinBlah

    We shall see. Indiana has had over 500,000 people vote early, twice the numbers from 2004, and Monroe county will go Obama 70-30 giving a large population center that has nearly 3 times as many registered voters as 2004 going to Obama. Nearly the entire student population has voted.

    It’s enough to give Obama a 2% win in the state, however you’re right, the polling data hasn’t been strong. However, I don’t know what else to call the voter numbers around here right now other than an upset in the making.

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