Red States Turning Blue

From the reports of a February 21st Rasmussen Poll:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters found Democrat Mark Warner still holding a significant lead over Republican Jim Gilmore in the race for the U.S. Senate. Warner leads Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 57% to 37%.

More interestingly, Warner has significant back from conservatives:

Warner earns high levels of support from liberals (88%) and moderates (70%) and even a third of conservative voters (34%). Gilmore attracts 60% of conservatives and 24% of moderate voters.

Is this the ripple down effect we can expect in the 2008 elections from 8 years of the Bush Administration?

[tags]virginia senate race, polls, conservative support, red states, blue, democrats, republicans, mark warner, jim gilmore[/tags]


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  1. klbos says:

    actually, i think this is due less to the bush administration than it is the records of the people running. gilmore is widely regarded in virginia as a terrible governor, while mark warner is celebrated as a terrific one. the trend also comes from the continued expansion of northern virginia in terms of economy, population, and geography. this sort of sprawl from the north gives higher educated, higher income, and more left-leaning people an increasing advantage as members of the virginia electorate.

    that said, nobody’s really happy with the job bush has done, so that helps, too.

  2. Tom says:

    As a longtime VA resident who has lived in Fredericksburg and Fairfax, I think that klbos is right on the money. Gilmore became governor by promising to get rid of the Car Tax. Unfortunately, he couldn’t find a reasonable way to shore up that missing income. New York started sending their trash here and public universities (widely regarded in VA) started running short on money, to name a few problems. Warner, on the other hand, is highly regarded for being a fiscal conservative, fixing a lot of the problems caused by his predecessor.

    Virginia isn’t a blue state or a red state; it’s a sane state.

  3. thrpoetryman says:

    I think the Bush debacle has doomed the Republican, the neocon wing of Republicans, for the next three or four elections, that is if the Democrats can find their spines in the soon to be coming swiftboating of all things decent…

  4. Blacksburger says:

    klbos hit the nail on the head with the first point, but it can’t be emphasized enough.

    Warner was a very popular governor, respected by everyone, D or R, for his competence and accomplishment in office. OTOH Gilmore is remembered as one of the worst. The only reason anyone would vote for him is to vote party-line R.

    NoVA doesn’t lean that far to the left. But as basically a Washington suburb, the dominant demographic there is the rank and file of the federal government and its contractors. These people know how government works, and they know good or bad government when they see it. Warner’s their man, D or R. They also come out on Election Day in a very big way.

    I agree that we’re a sane state, ruled from the middle.

    I’ll be very pleased to see Mark Warner in the US Senate, where his ability is sorely needed.

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