February 2012

If you don’t notice: voting booths next to slot machines next to a grocery store.

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The Article: It’s Time by the Economist.

The Text: It is impossible to forecast how important any presidency will be. Back in 2000 America stood tall as the undisputed superpower, at peace with a generally admiring world. The main argument was over what to do with the federal government’s huge budget surplus. Nobody foresaw the seismic events of the next eight years. When Americans go to the polls next week the mood will be very different. The United States is unhappy, divided and foundering both at home and abroad. Its self-belief and values are under attack.

For all the shortcomings of the campaign, both John McCain and Barack Obama offer hope of national redemption. Now America has to choose between them. The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead.

Thinking about 2009 and 2017

The immediate focus, which has dominated the campaign, looks daunting enough: repairing America’s economy and its international reputation. The financial crisis is far from finished. The United States is at the start of a painful recession. Some form of further fiscal stimulus is needed, though estimates of the budget deficit next year already spiral above $1 trillion. Some 50m Americans have negligible health-care cover. Abroad, even though troops are dying in two countries, the cack-handed way in which George Bush has prosecuted his war on terror has left America less feared by its enemies and less admired by its friends than it once was.

Yet there are also longer-term challenges, worth stressing if only because they have been so ignored on the campaign. Jump forward to 2017, when the next president will hope to relinquish office. A combination of demography and the rising costs of America’s huge entitlement programmes—Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—will be starting to bankrupt the country. Abroad a greater task is already evident: welding the new emerging powers to the West. That is not just a matter of handling the rise of India and China, drawing them into global efforts, such as curbs on climate change; it means reselling economic and political freedom to a world that too quickly associates American capitalism with Lehman Brothers and American justice with Guantánamo Bay. This will take patience, fortitude, salesmanship and strategy.

At the beginning of this election year, there were strong arguments against putting another Republican in the White House. A spell in opposition seemed apt punishment for the incompetence, cronyism and extremism of the Bush presidency. Conservative America also needs to recover its vim. Somehow Ronald Reagan’s party of western individualism and limited government has ended up not just increasing the size of the state but turning it into a tool of southern-fried moralism.

The selection of Mr McCain as the Republicans’ candidate was a powerful reason to reconsider. Mr McCain has his faults: he is an instinctive politician, quick to judge and with a sharp temper. And his age has long been a concern (how many global companies in distress would bring in a new 72-year-old boss?). Yet he has bravely taken unpopular positions—for free trade, immigration reform, the surge in Iraq, tackling climate change and campaign-finance reform. A western Republican in the Reagan mould, he has a long record of working with both Democrats and America’s allies.

If only the real John McCain had been running

That, however, was Senator McCain; the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as “agents of intolerance” now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.

Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia—to warn Russia off immediately—was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).

The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.

Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. Once he reaches the White House, runs this argument, he will put Mrs Palin back in her box, throw away his unrealistic tax plan and begin negotiations with the Democratic Congress. That is plausible; but it is a long way from the convincing case that Mr McCain could have made. Had he become president in 2000 instead of Mr Bush, the world might have had fewer problems. But this time it is beset by problems, and Mr McCain has not proved that he knows how to deal with them.

Is Mr Obama any better? Most of the hoopla about him has been about what he is, rather than what he would do. His identity is not as irrelevant as it sounds. Merely by becoming president, he would dispel many of the myths built up about America: it would be far harder for the spreaders of hate in the Islamic world to denounce the Great Satan if it were led by a black man whose middle name is Hussein; and far harder for autocrats around the world to claim that American democracy is a sham. America’s allies would rally to him: the global electoral college on our website shows a landslide in his favour. At home he would salve, if not close, the ugly racial wound left by America’s history and lessen the tendency of American blacks to blame all their problems on racism.

So Mr Obama’s star quality will be useful to him as president. But that alone is not enough to earn him the job. Charisma will not fix Medicare nor deal with Iran. Can he govern well? Two doubts present themselves: his lack of executive experience; and the suspicion that he is too far to the left.

There is no getting around the fact that Mr Obama’s résumé is thin for the world’s biggest job. But the exceptionally assured way in which he has run his campaign is a considerable comfort. It is not just that he has more than held his own against Mr McCain in the debates. A man who started with no money and few supporters has out-thought, out-organised and outfought the two mightiest machines in American politics—the Clintons and the conservative right.

Political fire, far from rattling Mr Obama, seems to bring out the best in him: the furore about his (admittedly ghastly) preacher prompted one of the most thoughtful speeches of the campaign. On the financial crisis his performance has been as assured as Mr McCain’s has been febrile. He seems a quick learner and has built up an impressive team of advisers, drawing in seasoned hands like Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. Of course, Mr Obama will make mistakes; but this is a man who listens, learns and manages well.

It is hard too nowadays to depict him as soft when it comes to dealing with America’s enemies. Part of Mr Obama’s original appeal to the Democratic left was his keenness to get American troops out of Iraq; but since the primaries he has moved to the centre, pragmatically saying the troops will leave only when the conditions are right. His determination to focus American power on Afghanistan, Pakistan and proliferation was prescient. He is keener to talk to Iran than Mr McCain is— but that makes sense, providing certain conditions are met.

Our main doubts about Mr Obama have to do with the damage a muddle-headed Democratic Congress might try to do to the economy. Despite the protectionist rhetoric that still sometimes seeps into his speeches, Mr Obama would not sponsor a China-bashing bill. But what happens if one appears out of Congress? Worryingly, he has a poor record of defying his party’s baronies, especially the unions. His advisers insist that Mr Obama is too clever to usher in a new age of over-regulation, that he will stop such nonsense getting out of Congress, that he is a political chameleon who would move to the centre in Washington. But the risk remains that on economic matters the centre that Mr Obama moves to would be that of his party, not that of the country as a whole.

He has earned it

So Mr Obama in that respect is a gamble. But the same goes for Mr McCain on at least as many counts, not least the possibility of President Palin. And this cannot be another election where the choice is based merely on fear. In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfil his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency.

See Also: Why was the financial crisis a turning point in the election?, John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable, It’s the economy, stupid, Economist Endorses Obama, The Economist…, Barack Obama Should Be The Next President of the United States, and The Economist Endorses Obama.

Technorati Tags: barack obama, the economist, endorsement, presidential endorsement, economist magazine, article, president of the united states of america

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It just keeps pouring in [via NYTimes]:

A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain…

The increase in the number of voters who said Ms. Palin was not prepared was driven almost entirely by Republicans and independents.. Over all, views of Ms. Palin were apparently shaped more by ideology and party than by gender. Ms. Palin was viewed as unprepared for the job by about 6 in 10 men and women alike. But 8 in 10 Democrats viewed her as unprepared, as well as more than 6 in 10 independents and 3 in 10 Republicans.

And she’s supposed to be the new vision of the Republican Party? Are they trying to pick up on the Democratic tradition of losing all major national elections? Regardless, the national ticket for the Republican party is a sinking like a stone.

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See Also: The Palin Poison, George Will gets it, New Poll: Palin Pick a Disaster for McCain, Path to the White House, Keep This In Mind, Is Palin Here to Stay?, Palin Not Ready, She’s still my homegirl, With friends like this, and Who Will Run The GOP?

Technorati Tags: sarah palin, electability, favorable ratings, recent polls, public polls, 10/31 poll, 10/30 poll, october 31st poll, 11/1 poll, november 1st poll, nytimes/cbs, new york times, sarah palin qualifications, public perceptions, prepared for presidency, prepared for vice presidency, unprepared, least qualified

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From Geek Tyrant comes the news that Sam Mendes (of American Beauty fame) will be directing a new movie based on Preacher, which is one of the most twisted and awesome comic book series I have ever read. This has got me all fluttered and twitterpated, are you ladies as wet as I am?

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“Because he knows that his economic theories don’t work, he’s been spending these last few days calling me every name in the book. Lately, he’s called me a socialist for wanting to rollback the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, so we can finally give tax relief to the middle class. I don’t know what’s next. By the end of the week he’ll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten.”

– Barack Obama, Campaigning in Raleigh, North Carolina

See Also: The Economist Endorses Obama, Trashes McCain, The Real McCain, Election Day 2008 Whine and Sheesh Party, A Peanut Butter and Jelly Sandwiches for Everyone, Krauthammer: Obama + Pelosi + Reid + Frank =ECONOMIC DANGER FOR AMERICA, Obama’s American Socialism: Decades In The Making, Video: Barack Obama ridicules John McCain on Socialism charges, Communist Barack Hussein Obama indoctrinates underage Aryan children with hypnotic black liberation terrorist fist jabs of Socialism, Socialism at Work…Obama style, Proof of Obama’s Socialism, What’s wrong with redistributing the wealth?, Socialism watch: How progressive do we have to get?, and Socialism is the New Black.

Technorati Tags: barack obama, communist, socialist, secret communist, middle class, sharing toys in kindergarten, quote, rally in raleigh north carolina, speech, zing, tax breaks, lower class, mccain attacks, republican attacks, sarah palin

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Dear Lovers and Readers:

PBH continues to outgrow itself and we are now in the midst of a redesign and server change. If you’d like to preview the new PBH design, you can do so here (comments and opinions always appreciated!).

We are also looking to add new bloggers — people primarily interested in covering domestic politics, international relations, or heterodox economics. If you are interested, please contact the admin at alecATprosebeforehos.com.

Love and affection,
PBH Admins

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Jihad on Christians! You are all bumbling malcontents that should find other outlets for your lack of education and discontent with modern capitalist excess! Blaming homosexuals for your problems is no way to go through life! Take some responsibility in life and realize that you are a product of economic misfortune and ignorance!

Jihad on your backwards beliefs! Jihad on believing in some 2000 year old Jew zombie who suffered from mental delusion! Jihad on believing in ancient fairy tales because you are too weak and stupid to grapple with reality!

[Inspiration: 70,000 Christians To Gather In San Diego To Pray Away Gay Rights and Christian Fanatics Pray Before Bull On Wall Street For Better Economic Times]

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