My Election Predictions

Presidential Election: Obama will win the election decidedly due to higher than anticipated 18-30 year old and African-American turnout, both of which are not being captured by current polls. Nationally, Obama will come away with a 6-8 percent margin in the popular vote, and will pull off some electoral surprises on the way.

Obama will carry 2 of 5 of the following states: South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, or Arizona. Georgia is the greatest possibility while Arizona is the least likely to flip, and if Obama does lose Georgia, it will be by less than 2 percent, leaving some to question the wisdom of pulling out his ground game following Palin’s nomination. South Dakota and Montana both have been trending positively towards Obama and upticket support from popular Democratic Senators will also help in providing an upset in one of these two states.

Among battleground states, Ohio and Florida will be split between McCain and Obama, with Obama more likely to pick up Ohio and McCain Florida. Obama will pick up Nevada while McCain will hold onto Missouri, though by the slimmest of margins. Similarly, Indiana will be a contest decided by less than 2 percentage points that goes to John McCain.

Other surprises will include the margin of victory in Virginia, where Obama will win by high single digits to low double digits, much due to the up-ticket swing provided by Democrat Mark Warner (who will win his Senate race by approximately 30 percentage points). Less of a surprise will be Obama comfortably winning North Carolina in the 7 to 10 percent range.

Other non-surprises will include Obama sweeping the Midwest except for Indiana, including a double digit victory for Obama in Pennsylvania, despite recent polls showing tightening. Obama will also win Colorado and New Mexico by high single digits and will pull away in New Hampshire with a double digit victory.

Predicted Final Electoral College Outcome: 343 for Barack Obama, 195 for John McCain. Map below:

Senate Races: In my estimation, there will be two Senate “surprises”.

One is in Georgia, where incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss will be defeated by 2 to 3 points by Democratic challenger Jim Martin. I attribute this to two factors: the eventual commitment of African-Americans to the Democratic brand and the continuation of current momentum that sees Jim Martin picking up 2 to 3 additional percentage points, namely from independent whites voting for McCain and yet ‘undecided’ African-Americans.

The other will be in Minnesota, where Democratic challenger Al Franken will lose in the high single digits to incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman, with Independent Dean Barkley taking approximately 20 percent of the vote. Democrats will be kicking themselves for putting up an unprepared, novelty nominee in a state where Obama will win by double digits. This will be especially bitter as they will sit on 59 Senate seats, just short of the Super Majority, for the next 2 years because they didn’t run a serious candidate in Minnesota. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Republicans will hold onto the Kentucky and Mississippi Senate seats more comfortably than expected.

Some other things to watch will be Elizabeth Dole’s campaign come crashing down in flames, contributing to much up-ticket resentment against the Republican brand. I’m currently foreseeing her losing by 8 to 12 percentage points — much higher than currently polled. Similar (very foreseeable) things will be occurring to the Stevens and Sununu campaigns, with both losing in the low-to-mid teens, percentage wise.

The final composition of the Senate is estimated to be 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and 2 Independents.

Some things to note: The election in general is highlighted by a strong rejection among right-centrist voters for the Republican brand. As such, I am expecting a significant decrease in straight Republican voters, especially in typical conservative strongholds, leading to wider margins of victory for Democrats in both national and senatorial races. Conversely, Democrats will be kicking themselves on Wednesday morning for overreacting to Palin’s nomination by pulling out of Georgia and not vetting out a stronger candidate for the Minnesota Senate race.

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  1. Al Franken says:

    YOU SCUK! I AMZ GONNA WINRAR!

  2. Marcus Lang says:

    SD isn’t going to happen, maybe ND because they have same day registration. Obama will most likely take FL, and IN, MO, MT and ND are all more likely than GA. 59 is possible,but not for your reasons. GA has a rule where if no one gets 50% there’s a run off and it’s a 3 man race… Sorry, your predictions are pretty off. Good try, comment me back if you wanna rebute.

  3. alec says:

    If I could change my electoral map, I would make Montana blue, Maine 4-0 for Obama and maintain that 2 out of the 4 (North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia, and South Dakota) will turn for Obama. Polling in the past 48 hours has been fairly even for Florida and Missouri while Indiana has been breaking red. And I’m assuming by 3 man race you mean 2 man race, and I do think Martin will pull that off.

  4. Marcus Lang says:

    No, it’s a 3 man race, there’s a libertarian running. That’s why none of the polling in that race hit 50%. I haven’t seen one poll that shows Obama up in SD, I don’t know why your keep saying SD. MO and IN are WAY WAY WAY more likely than SD. ND and MT are both very possible though. Today the polls show Obama up in FL. The Senate will be 59/41 maybe 58.I don’t know why you were originally splitting Maine, the 3rd district in NE could go blue, that’s a lot more likely than Maine or SD. I’m thinking Obama will get around 350.

  5. alec says:

    A run off means it will be a two man race. I don’t know what’s difficult for you to comprehend that I think Martin would win the run off as well.

    Yes, MO or IN could go Obama, but those would not be surprising. I said that Obama would win 2 of the 5 (and they would be… get it? suprises!) of GA, MT, SD, ND, and AZ… and I would also through in Louisana in there for good measure.

    Reread what I wrote (carefully this time) and that get back to me.

  6. Fred says:

    The reason a runoff in Georgia swings red is because the 3rd party candidate is Libertarian. If, say tonight the vote goes 48D-47R-5L, those libertarians will almost all go republican.

    Interesting call going with Georgia over Florida, Missouri or even Indiana. The hardest call in the nation is Missouri… it is an absolute coin flip on every poll. If anybody predicts MO correctly, they guessed right 🙂

  7. Dude says:

    LMAO @ SD and GA.

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